US economy to enter recession this year, suggests survey
What's the story
The United States economy is expected to enter a recession in the second half of 2025, a recent CNBC survey has revealed.
A whopping 60% of chief financial officers (CFOs) surveyed believe that an economic downturn is on the horizon.
This is a sharp increase from only 7% in the last quarter's survey at the end of 2024.
Economic outlook
CFOs anticipate a recession in 2026
Along with the 2025 forecast, another 15% of surveyed CFOs expect a recession in the world's biggest economy in 2026.
This growing trend isn't just limited to financial professionals but also ordinary consumers.
According to Bloomberg data, the percentage of US consumers expecting a recession has hit its highest level in nine months.
Expert opinions
Harvard economist predicts a recession
Speaking to CNBC-TV18 on March 10, Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff estimated a 30-35% chance of a US recession in 2025.
He attributed the risk to the unpredictability surrounding Donald Trump's economic policies, potential government spending cuts, and tariffs that may be imposed on April 2.
Bond market expert Jeffrey Gundlach from DoubleLine Capital estimated a 50-60% chance of a US recession in 2025.
Market predictions
Deutsche Bank survey indicates recession risk
A Deutsche Bank survey also backs these predictions, giving a 43% chance of a US recession in the next year.
The CFOs surveyed by CNBC described their outlook as 'pessimistic,' with 95% saying the uncertainty created by the Trump administration has affected their ability to make decisions.
Despite the uncertainty, 90% of those surveyed feel the Dow Jones will test 40,000 this year.
Market trends
US stock market experiences significant loss
The US stock market has already lost over $5.5 trillion in value in the last month, mostly due to a sell-off in major tech stocks such as Tesla, NVIDIA, Salesforce, Apple and Google's parent Alphabet.
However, not everyone is on board with the recession predictions.
Taimur Baig of DBS Group told CNBC-TV18 that while uncertainty could delay investments and consumption decisions, recent home sales figures aren't alarming.