Inflation concerns to growth slowdown—Key highlights of Economic Survey 2024-25
What's the story
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has tabled the Economic Survey 2025 in Parliament today.
The survey is a detailed report on the country's economic performance and government policies, along with projections for the next fiscal year.
It projects India's GDP growth to be between 6.3-6.8%—the slowest in recent years.
The 2025 prediction comes six months after the last survey was tabled on July 22, 2024 after the General Election where PM Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party lost ground in parliament.
Survey structure
Economic Survey 2025: A two-part analysis of India's economy
The Economic Survey is divided into two parts: Part A and Part B.
While the former looks at economic performance in terms of macroeconomic indicators and fiscal trends, the latter deals with socio-economic issues like education, poverty, climate change, GDP growth outlook, inflation, and trade.
The survey is prepared by the economic division of the Department of Economic Affairs (DEA), headed by Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran.
Economic stability
India's GDP growth of 6.4% remains close to decadal average
India's real GDP growth of 6.4% in FY24-25 remains close to the decadal average, the survey highlights.
However, this is a sharp decline from the stellar 8.2% growth witnessed in FY24 when India was hailed as the fastest-growing major economy in the world.
"From an aggregate supply perspective, real gross value added (GVA) is also estimated to grow by 6.4% in FY25," states the survey.
Sectors including agriculture, industry, and services are operating well above trend levels, per the survey.
Inflation control
Inflation has improved but still above RBI's target of 4%
The survey notes that retail headline inflation has fallen from 5.4% in FY23-24 to 4.9% in the April-December period of FY24-25.
The RBI has an inflation target of 4% (with a leeway of two percentage points on either side).
Both the central bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast India's consumer price inflation to gradually converge to the target of about 4% in FY26.
Sectoral stability
Economic Survey 2025: Banking and insurance sectors show stability
The survey highlights that commercial banks have witnessed a steady decline in their gross non-performing assets (GNPA) ratio "from its peak in FY18 to a low of 2.6% at the end of September 2024."
The credit-GDP gap has also declined to 0.3% in Q1 of FY24-25 from -10.3% in the same quarter of the previous year, suggesting sustainable growth in bank credit.
Sectoral growth
Economic Survey 2025: Insurance premiums and pension subscribers increase
The survey also highlights an increase in insurance premiums by 7.7% in FY23-24, amounting to ₹11.2 lakh crore.
The total number of pension subscribers has also increased by 16% year-on-year as of September 2024.
The survey also shows that bank credit to micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) has been growing faster than credit disbursal to large enterprises.
As of end-November 2024, credit to MSMEs recorded a year-on-year growth of 13%, while it was at 6.1% for large enterprises.
Trade dynamics
Economic Survey 2025: Exports show steady growth, imports increase
India's overall exports (merchandise and services) have steadily grown in the first nine months of FY25, amounting to $602.6 billion (6%).
Services and goods exports growth (excluding petroleum and gems and jewelry) stood at 10.4%.
Overall imports during the period stood at $682.2 billion, growing at 6.9% on account of steady domestic demand.