JP Morgan predicts gold prices could hit $4,000 by 2026
What's the story
JP Morgan has made a bold prediction about the future of gold prices. The financial giant forecasts gold could reach an unprecedented price of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026.
This forecast is primarily driven by growing recession concerns, increased US tariffs, and escalating trade tensions between the US and China.
In its latest report, JP Morgan stated these factors are expected to trigger a sustained rally in the price of gold.
Market analysis
Gold's price trajectory and market performance
JP Morgan predicts gold will average $3,675 per ounce by Q4 2025.
The bank also noted prices could hit the $4,000 mark sooner if investor and central bank demand remains robust.
This year alone, spot gold has already surged by 29%, reaching an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22.
Other forecasts
Goldman Sachs also bullish on gold prices
Goldman Sachs has also turned more bullish on gold prices. The bank recently upgraded its 2025 year-end forecast from $3,300 to $3,700 per ounce.
In an extreme case, Goldman Sachs even said that gold could hit $4,500 by the end of next year.
This bullish outlook is similar to JP Morgan's predictions about the future course of gold prices.
Demand and risks
Factors influencing gold price forecasts
A major reason behind JP Morgan's prediction is the robust buying from investors and central banks.
The bank expects net gold demand to average at around 710 tons per quarter this year.
However, JP Morgan also noted risks to its forecast. If central bank demand weakens or the US economy copes better than expected with tariff shocks, it could see a more hawkish US Federal Reserve, possibly rate hikes.
Silver outlook
Silver's price forecast by JP Morgan
Along with gold, JP Morgan also offered a forecast for silver prices.
The bank expects silver to face short-term headwinds from weak industrial demand.
However, it expects a recovery in the second half of 2025, with prices expected to rise toward $39 per ounce by year-end.
This prediction shows a silver lining despite the current market conditions.