China's population declines for second consecutive year
China experienced a population decline for the second year in a row in 2023, with the total number of people dropping to 1.409 billion, a decrease of 2.75 million from the previous year. The National Bureau of Statistics points to a falling birth rate and a surge in COVID-19 deaths after strict lockdowns were lifted as the main reasons for this decline. This downward trend has sparked worries about the future growth potential of the world's second-largest economy.
Factors contributing to the population decline in China
The birth rate in China has been on a steady decline for decades, largely due to the one-child policy in effect from 1980 to 2015 and rapid urbanization during that time. In 2023, youth unemployment hit an all-time high, wages for many white-collar workers decreased, and a crisis in the real estate sector worsened, further discouraging people from having children. Last year, China's birth rate reached a record low of 6.39 births per 1,000 people.
Implications of China's shrinking population
This dwindling population means that there will be fewer workers and consumers. Also, the increasing costs of elderly care and retirement benefits put a strain on already indebted local governments. According to UN estimates, India overtook China as the world's most populous nation last year. Experts predict that by 2050, China's population will shrink by 109 million, and by 2035, its retirement-age population is expected to exceed 400 million—more than the entire population of the United States.
