AI may displace 3M jobs, warns Tony Blair's think tank
Artificial Intelligence (AI) could disrupt between one and three million private sector jobs in the UK, a report by ex-UK Prime Minister Tony Blair's think tank has found. The study also notes that this disruption could result in an annual displacement of 60,000-275,000 jobs at its peak over two decades. However, the report calls these numbers "relatively modest" compared to the average annual job losses in the UK (around 450,000 a year) over the past decade.
Impact on long-term unemployment
The Tony Blair Institute (TBI) does not expect the magnitude of job displacement to lead to widespread long-term unemployment. It expects total job losses to peak in the low hundreds of thousands by the end of next decade. "Our best guess is that AI's peak impact on unemployment is likely to be in the low hundreds of thousands and for the effect to unwind over time," according to the report, titled the Impact of AI on the Labour Market.
AI's potential to boost UK's economy
The TBI report also emphasizes AI's potential to supercharge the UK's economy. It estimates AI deployment could increase GDP by as much as 1% in five years, and by as much as 6% by 2035. Meanwhile, unemployment could rise by 180,000 by 2030. However, these projections depend on several factors such as emerging tools over the next decade, investment decisions taken by private firms, and government policies accelerating or delaying implementation.
Influence on job creation and productivity
The TBI admits that although AI will certainly take away some jobs, it may also create more by improving the productivity of workers. This improved productivity could drive economic growth and lead to more job opportunities. The report notes that administrative and secretarial jobs are most at risk of being disrupted by AI, followed by sales and customer service, banking, and finance sectors.
Efficiency in cognitive tasks
The TBI report highlights that most of the efficiencies from AI will probably come from products doing cognitive tasks, like chatbots. Meanwhile, sectors involving complex manual work such as construction are likely to be less impacted. However, jobs involving routine cognitive tasks and industries producing large amounts of data are more likely to be impacted due to their capability of training AI models easily.
